Pacing strategy: even, negative or positive split?

What the data shows

Across 1.2 million marathon finishes analysed in published research, even and slightly negative splits dominate the top quartile. Positive splits of 4+ minutes dominate the bottom quartile.

Elite men frequently negative-split championship marathons; elite women lean slightly more even. Amateurs typically positive-split by 4–10 minutes — almost always from going out too fast.

How to actually do it

• Pick a target halfway split that's 30–60 seconds slower than goal half.
• Use a pace band or watch alert at 5 km splits.
• Resist the urge to bank time. The wall costs more than the buffer saves.